In the first half of FY19, the rupee could fall by about 3 per cent to the dollar, with the highest crude oil prices in more than three years and a likelihood of faster rate increases by the US Federal Reserve weighing on the local currency, an ET survey showed. The poll, conducted among 21 market participants, also pointed to a minority view that New Delhi’s fiscal arithmetic faces a challenge from factors that have their origins beyond India’s shores, although North Block had earlier surprised the markets with a borrowing calendar that underscored fiscal prudence in the run-up to general elections.