India is facing one of its most difficult monsoon seasons in more than a decade. A brutal heatwave has already strained farms, power grids and patience nationwide. Now the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed what markets had been dreading: an El Niño is taking shape over the Pacific. Rainfall is expected to stay below normal through the June-September season. The numbers are stark as IMD has pegged seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average. The period between June 1 and June 16 has already run 35% short of normal.