The West Asia conflict has disrupted energy supplies and shipping routes but has so far failed to derail global merchandise trade, prompting the World Trade Organization (WTO) to sharply raise its forecast for 2026 trade growth to 3.9% from 1.9% in its March outlook. The latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released Thursday, marks a significant turnaround from the WTO’s earlier assessment. The organisation had cut its 2026 merchandise trade forecast to 1.9% in March as the conflict raised the prospect of an oil shock and wider disruption. It now expects global merchandise trade volume to grow another 4.1% in 2027.