India’s economy is proving harder to knock off course, with the Asian Development Bank raising its 2026 growth forecast to 7% as resilient consumers, investment and government spending cushion the country from a volatile global backdrop. But the same outlook carries a warning: a strengthening El Nino, coupled with elevated energy prices, could turn into a fresh inflation shock for an economy where food prices have an outsized influence on household budgets. That could force the Reserve Bank of India to keep monetary policy tighter even as growth remains strong.