India's inflation outlook will hinge critically on rainfall in September, with a further shortfall in the final month of the southwest monsoon potentially pushing FY27 consumer price inflation to 5.5 per cent or higher if El Nino conditions are confirmed, according to a Union Bank of India report. The bank's research report said the monsoon remained 13 per cent below the long-period average as of Thursday, despite a recovery in kharif sowing.