With a better assessment of the impact of the West Asia crisis on the economy and lower-than-anticipated subsidy pressures, the Centre is hopeful of containing the fiscal deficit at around the Budget Estimate (BE) of 4.3% of GDP for FY27, despite the revenue loss from the recent cut in petrol and diesel excise duty, sources said. The government’s confidence stems largely from a sharp moderation in the additional fertiliser subsidy requirement, which had emerged as one of the biggest fiscal risks after the West Asia war broke out 27 days after the Budget for FY27 was presented on February 1. The additional requirement, initially estimated at Rs 2.7 lakh crore over and above the Budget provision of Rs 1.71 lakh crore, subsequently fell to Rs 2.5 lakh crore, then Rs 1.7 lakh crore and is now estimated at less than Rs 70,000 crore as global fertiliser prices have moderated sharply.