For most of the last decade, the answer to any awkward question about India’s trade numbers was the same: look at services. Merchandise imports could balloon, oil could spike, gold could surge and the country’s software and business-services exports would quietly absorb the shock. That reflex is now being tested. Net services exports fell to $16.95 billion in July 2026, down 5% month-on-month and up just 3% from a year earlier, according to a trade balance note published by Emkay Global. Gross services exports of $36 billion rose 6% year-on-year, while services imports at $19 billion were up 10%.