China’s tightening control over critical minerals and export restrictions on rare earth elements could put around $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk, as industries from automobiles and defence to clean energy and high-tech manufacturing remain exposed to concentrated supply chains, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. The warning comes as global efforts to reduce dependence on China for critical minerals face hurdles, with trade restrictions, price volatility and limited diversification of refining capacity creating new economic security challenges, according to the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report.