The Reserve Bank of India will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% in August and for the rest of the year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, as it assesses the impact of the Middle East war on the economy and price pressures. That is a shift from a May Reuters poll, when economists had forecast a rate hike next quarter. Although inflation rose to 4.38% in June, the first reading above the RBI's 4% target since January 2025, many economists have scaled back expectations for an interest rate hike this year after Governor Sanjay Malhotra said it was "premature" to discuss raising them.