Food inflation in India is projected to average around 6 per cent in the 2027 fiscal year, while the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to settle at 5 per cent. A severe rainfall deficit at the start of the monsoon season is driving these projections, posing a direct threat to agricultural output and domestic food prices. According to a report by CareEdge Ratings, monsoon rainfall between June 1 and June 29, 2026, recorded a deficit of 41.5 per cent from the longperiod average. This sharp dip raises immediate concerns over food production and overall inflation, especially since domestic edible oil inflation already stood high at 9.5 per cent in May.