Although the southwest monsoon is advancing up the west coast and interior peninsula, the prospect of El Niño-induced below-normal rainfall doesn’t augur well for the countryside and economy. The uneven spatial and temporal spread of rains will hit cultivation of kharif crops like paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soya bean among others. Lower rains that are 90% below the long period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm usually entail drought conditions. As if on cue, the Union ministry of agriculture and farmers’ welfare has already lowered the food grain production target for FY27. These prospects threaten the growth momentum of the agricultural sector that expanded by 4.1% per annum during the five years till FY26 due to a run of normal and above-normal monsoons, barring FY24.