China's export growth likely strengthened in May, underpinned by a backlog of overseas orders brought forward to pre-empt energy price pressures tied to the Gulf war, alongside sustained global demand for semiconductors and AI-related components. Exports from the world's second-largest economy are forecast to have risen 15% year-on-year in dollar terms, according to 32 economists in a Reuters poll, up from the 14.1% growth recorded in April. The Middle East conflict has yet to dent China's exports, policymakers' preferred growth driver, but economists say it's only a matter of time. As foreign buyers' stockpiling peaks, the benefits of front-loading orders fade and input costs rise, prompting buyers to run down inventories and wait out a ceasefire. Economists were divided on the health of China's outbound shipments last month. China Industrial Securities, Huachuang Securities and Zheshang Securities returned the lowest forecasts of around 10% growth, while the Economist Intelligence Unit and JP Morgan predicted exports growth to slip to about 12%