Economists across CareEdge, Bank of Baroda, and Kotak Institutional Equities warn that the macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated meaningfully since the West Asia conflict began, with a weak, El Nino-hit monsoon and rising fuel costs threatening to compound the strain in the first quarter of FY27. The grim outlook comes despite India’s growth moderating in Q4FY26. Economists believe that in the March quarter the economy remained partially shielded from the adverse effects of geopolitical tension as the war started in late February. Progress on the global trade front and companies’ reliance on existing inventories also helped cushion the impact of rising input costs.