It may sound counterintuitive. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The world’s largest LNG plant is idled and Qatar says repairing it will take at least three years. And yet, the contours of a long-term surplus are already starting to emerge. The outlook for LNG prices is crucial in Europe and Asia, where the commodity is either burned to generate electricity and heat, or used as feedstock to produce chemicals and fertilisers. In those regions, where LNG prices go so goes inflation. The war in Iran has sent benchmark LNG prices sharply higher — although far below the all-time high set after Russia invaded Ukraine. In March, the Asian benchmark known as JKM briefly rose to about $30 per million British thermal units, up from less than $11 in February. For comparison, it jumped eight-fold jump in 2022, nearing $70.