The United Arab Emirates' planned exit from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance from May 2026 is expected to have limited immediate impact on oil markets but could weaken the group's supply discipline and price-management ability over time, HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday. The UAE, one of OPEC's largest producers, said on Tuesday it would leave both OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a blow to the producers' group as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupts energy flows. In the near term, HSBC expects little change to global oil supply, as crude exports from the Gulf remain constrained by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since late February.