A temporary surge in oil prices to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage point, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday, as a widening conflict in Iran chokes off vital Middle East oil and gas flows. Under its baseline forecast, Goldman expects oil prices to increase a bit further before moderating to $76 per barrel on average in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 in the fourth quarter. In an upside scenario, it expects oil prices to rise to about $100 per barrel, before normalizing over the course of 2026.