India stands at a precarious crossroads as rising crude prices threaten to inflate the national import bill and stretch the government’s fiscal capacity. According to a detailed analysis by Nomura, India is now among the most susceptible economies in Asia to energy shocks, alongside Thailand and South Korea. Impact on consumer inflation While the domestic impact on consumer inflation remains somewhat shielded by state-regulated fuel pricing, the report suggests that the financial burden will eventually manifest through either a higher subsidy load or a widening trade deficit.