The war that erupted in West Asia on February 28 has triggered an oil shock that is now rippling through global markets and straight into India’s economic calculus. Within days of the joint US–Israel strike on Iran, crude prices surged from around $65 per barrel to $72–73, jolting energy markets and placing the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow artery carrying nearly half of India’s crude imports — under an unforgiving spotlight. A sustained $10–15 per barrel increase would inflate India’s annual oil import outgo by well over $20 billion, widening the current account deficit and placing renewed pressure on the rupee. Higher crude feeds into inflation through transport and input costs, complicating fiscal arithmetic at a time when growth momentum remains a policy priority.