“February Russian inflows are unlikely to fall to zero because some cargoes are already scheduled.” That assessment from global oil market trackers captures the underlying reality behind the political noise surrounding India’s crude oil trade after US President Donald Trump claimed that New Delhi had agreed to stop buying Russian oil as part of a broader trade understanding with Washington. While Trump said tariffs on Indian goods would be cut to 18% from 50% and that India would pivot to buying more oil from the US and potentially Venezuela, energy market data, refinery logistics and inflation risks point to a gradual recalibration rather than an abrupt rupture in India’s Russian crude intake.