India economic outlook 2026: India’s export numbers to the United States in FY26 so far present a paradox that Indian policymakers cannot afford to misread. Despite a steep 50% tariff imposed by U.S. President Donal Trump since August, India’s merchandise exports to the US have risen sharply, up 11.38% year-on-year during April–November and surging 22% in November year on year. At first glance, this resilience may appear reassuring. But a closer reading of the situation will show that the current stability rests on fragile ground. One of the Indian economy’s most urgent needs in 2026 is a win-win trade agreement with the US, without which the cumulative impact of high tariffs could begin to weigh heavily on growth, jobs and competitiveness.