Economists expect reciprocal US tariffs on Indian exports to be lowered to 15%-20% by the end of December, as there seems to be some concrete movement from both governments. Importantly, most believe the additional 25% penalty duty, imposed on August 27, is on its way out after India has moderated its oil imports from Russia. “If the deal is well-negotiated, the overall tariff burden could fall to 15%, aligning India with other Asian peers and unlocking significant macroeconomic gains,” said Tanvee Gupta Jain, chief India economist, UBS.