U.S. holiday sales are expected to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, the National Retail Federation said on Thursday, though growth is forecast to slow as economic pressures weigh on consumer sentiment. The holiday season includes major shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, and accounts for a significant portion of major retailers' revenues. Persistent inflation, the fallout from the Trump administration's tariffs and the federal government shutdown pose risks, as shoppers think twice about buying extravagant gifts.