The government is likely to stay on the fiscal consolidation path and set the fiscal deficit target at 4.5 percent of the GDP in the Union Budget for 2025-26, showed a Moneycontrol poll of 13 economists. “The fiscal deficit target for FY26 is likely to be set at 4.5 percent of GDP, entailing a reduction of 25-30 bps over the projected 4.8 percent of GDP in FY25,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA. Some economists in the MC Poll noted that the government may go for an even lower fiscal deficit of 4.3-4.4 percent. Bank of Baroda and HDFC Bank both projected that the fiscal deficit target will be set lower than 4.5 percent and within the 4.3-4.4 percent range.